otterfactory
09-19-2008, 01:21 AM
We can probably all agree that Enhancing is a gamble. However, many people have many myths when it comes to increasing success rate but..well...its just a percentage and any "pattern" you might see is just a natural human instinct to seek one (or prove me otherwise through a well done experiment). The Gold Nine adds 15% to that original percentage (Although lately anything might be bugged :rolleyes:).
Well when it comes to gambling, I am one of the impression that "the House always wins" (Just play Remi's Rare Finds a couple of times to verify that xD).
What I am suggesting is that Outspark has done the math very well in pricing their items, and If I am going to take a gamble it might as well be an informed one. There is no better place to start than the numbers we have right in front of us courtesy of Outspark:
Costs: (T1...who cares xD?)
___Miles+Eyes+Gold9s________Miles+Eyes:____Gold9 as a % of Eyes+Miles:
T2:____5225 ($7.46)_________3475 ($4.96)_____________33%
T3:____7450 ($10.60)________5000 ($7.14)_____________49%
T4:____10860 ($15.51)_______7100 ($10.14)____________53%
I will assume for starters that you will use both Eyes and Miles past the Elrue Stage, and you will always use Reds because the item is a very valuable Godly Green.The success rate decreases through the stages of enhancing.
Unfortunately, there is valuable information we don't know, namely the initial success rate for enhancing. Without perfect information we are forced to make decisions based on our beliefs.
I would love to be able to form good assumptions but I have probably only enhanced 50 Items, most of which were T3 and only 2 of them where T4. I have noticed that the average is 4 Sets of Eyes for each T3 item and around 3.2 Sets of Blues (Your experiences may be different and I would love some feedback on that).
My best estimates for T3: (No Blue Miles in Elrue Stage)
Stones +3(~% Success)[$]_Stones for+3-6(%)[$]__Stones for +6-9(%)[$]
__8 Stones(38%)[$3.37]__13 stones(23%)[$9.28]__20 Stones(15%)[$14.29]
If I believe this to be true then:
Approximate Stones used with Gold Nine (+15%):__Price Difference w/ Gold9:
Stones to +3:_________5.65 stones___________________+2.51
Stones from +3-6:_____8 stones______________________-$0.07
Stones from +6-9:_____10 stones_____________________-$3.65
Using my estimated success rates for T3 it is clear that I should only use Gold Nines from +6-9.
In conclusion, the rate of success for which Gold Nines are worth more than their cost for T3 enhancing is about 23%. If you believe your success rate to be worse then 23% for any given moment in enhancing a T3 item then using a Gold Nine is the proper decision. There isn't much of a difference in the cost of a T4 Gold Nine as a % of the Eyes/Miles from that of a T3 Gold Nine (only 4%), and I believe the success rates are also very similar to that of T3 from just the 2 T4 items I have enhanced, so I do recommend Gold Nines in the Xir stage, and if time proves T4 enhancement to be more difficult then I will probably use Gold Nines in the Lix Stage as well. As for T2 items, I assume the success rate is again only slightly better than that of T3 but the price of Gold Nines is much lower relative to Blues/Reds, so it is possible that Gold Nines are more useful in the Lix stage of T2 Enhancing as well as the Xir (Tired of math for now, maybe later xD). I personally will always use Gold Nines in the Xir stage of any enhancement from here on out.
Well when it comes to gambling, I am one of the impression that "the House always wins" (Just play Remi's Rare Finds a couple of times to verify that xD).
What I am suggesting is that Outspark has done the math very well in pricing their items, and If I am going to take a gamble it might as well be an informed one. There is no better place to start than the numbers we have right in front of us courtesy of Outspark:
Costs: (T1...who cares xD?)
___Miles+Eyes+Gold9s________Miles+Eyes:____Gold9 as a % of Eyes+Miles:
T2:____5225 ($7.46)_________3475 ($4.96)_____________33%
T3:____7450 ($10.60)________5000 ($7.14)_____________49%
T4:____10860 ($15.51)_______7100 ($10.14)____________53%
I will assume for starters that you will use both Eyes and Miles past the Elrue Stage, and you will always use Reds because the item is a very valuable Godly Green.The success rate decreases through the stages of enhancing.
Unfortunately, there is valuable information we don't know, namely the initial success rate for enhancing. Without perfect information we are forced to make decisions based on our beliefs.
I would love to be able to form good assumptions but I have probably only enhanced 50 Items, most of which were T3 and only 2 of them where T4. I have noticed that the average is 4 Sets of Eyes for each T3 item and around 3.2 Sets of Blues (Your experiences may be different and I would love some feedback on that).
My best estimates for T3: (No Blue Miles in Elrue Stage)
Stones +3(~% Success)[$]_Stones for+3-6(%)[$]__Stones for +6-9(%)[$]
__8 Stones(38%)[$3.37]__13 stones(23%)[$9.28]__20 Stones(15%)[$14.29]
If I believe this to be true then:
Approximate Stones used with Gold Nine (+15%):__Price Difference w/ Gold9:
Stones to +3:_________5.65 stones___________________+2.51
Stones from +3-6:_____8 stones______________________-$0.07
Stones from +6-9:_____10 stones_____________________-$3.65
Using my estimated success rates for T3 it is clear that I should only use Gold Nines from +6-9.
In conclusion, the rate of success for which Gold Nines are worth more than their cost for T3 enhancing is about 23%. If you believe your success rate to be worse then 23% for any given moment in enhancing a T3 item then using a Gold Nine is the proper decision. There isn't much of a difference in the cost of a T4 Gold Nine as a % of the Eyes/Miles from that of a T3 Gold Nine (only 4%), and I believe the success rates are also very similar to that of T3 from just the 2 T4 items I have enhanced, so I do recommend Gold Nines in the Xir stage, and if time proves T4 enhancement to be more difficult then I will probably use Gold Nines in the Lix Stage as well. As for T2 items, I assume the success rate is again only slightly better than that of T3 but the price of Gold Nines is much lower relative to Blues/Reds, so it is possible that Gold Nines are more useful in the Lix stage of T2 Enhancing as well as the Xir (Tired of math for now, maybe later xD). I personally will always use Gold Nines in the Xir stage of any enhancement from here on out.