My Herb Gathering Statistics

[zombeau]

Okay, I did 70 trials and wrote down my results.
This may not be completely accurate, but if I do more trials I'll keep updating the results.

Blue Mushroom >> 2.9%
Apple >> 1.4%
Herb >> 30.0%
Weed >> 27.1%
Wood >> 11.4%
Aqua Dew >> 1.4%
Wind Dew >> 1.4%
Diamond Flower Dew >> 2.9%
Fail >> 15%
*Due to rounding and the fact that I did not include the shovel being returned, these percentages do NOT actually add up to 100%

Anything not listed, most likely has a very small percentage chance.
I also did not list the probability of just getting the shovel back,
as it's pretty much like nothing happened.


And by all means,
if I have made a mistake or you disagree with my findings let me know!

[obilerator]

Usually when conducting statistics, people usually work with a higher number.. 70 seems... low, and thus it won't give us a very accurate finding. Also, taking into account the shovels obtained during the course of gathering would affect the percentages, sometimes greatly.

But in any case, thank you for taking your time to conduct this experiment.

[TriGoon]

Ya 70 is honestly too low for real stats. I used 2,000 for my mining stats, which i'm updating to 10,000 trials tomorrow. Much more accurate with a larger sample. ^^

[zombeau]

I actually did ask someone who's taken Statistics classes.
Apparently an acceptable number for accurate results is only 30 trials.
I beg to differ, but like I said, I will be adding to this as I go.

I also did notice that as I increased the number of trials, the percentages remained relatively the same.
I'm thinking a range of probabilities is useful for the purpose of reference for the game.

[Rorin_V]

I actually did ask someone who's taken Statistics classes.
Apparently an acceptable number for accurate results is only 30 trials.
I beg to differ, but like I said, I will be adding to this as I go.

I also did notice that as I increased the number of trials, the percentages remained relatively the same.
I'm thinking a range of probabilities is useful for the purpose of reference for the game.


Thirty trials will begin to give you a gross idea of the picture. Calculate the standard deviation on your stats and you'll realize that your stated percentages should include a range of +/- XX%. As you increase the number of trials, that range will get smaller and smaller, and your results will be more accurate.

Also, I know that these stats cannot be completely accurate because you have not even included at least two items: Firebird and Earth Dew. There may be more items available from herbing that I am not aware of.

Also, doesn't it seem odd to you that the percent of Diamond Flower Dew is twice that of the other two dews you've included? Something tells me the chances should be roughly the same on all dews (unless there is one particular one that is more rare than the others). It is with the ultra-rare items that the most errors will occur.

A good start, but could be improved by doing more than 70 trials. Probably 1000 would be the minimum to make sure you get all possible items in accurate amounts.

[TriGoon]

You need waaaaay more than 70, especially in mining. There are very rare things over there.

I didn't find a single Topaz till like i had more than 4000 trials already. Got like 3 out of 10,000

Herb gathering does seem a bit simpler though, but still, more than 70 is definatly needed. :)

[johnbunny]

Well.... it gives a rough idea on what to expect guys. Sheesh.

Thumbs up ^^;

[glericus]

imo it would be better if you sort the list from highest % to lowest, and maybe add the amount nr insted of just %.

[edwardmrivera]

Based on Statistics, you do only need a small number of trials. Thing is, due to the numerous rares that don't come up even within 1,000 trials, those 70 trials don't account for those items.