Item forging/compositing chance

[tigras]

Somthing is really wrong with the item forging/compositing chance %... tried to make wooden sword with 75% chance got 0 out of 4 tries; tried to make minor mana potions with a chance of 80% got 0 out of 6! I don't think that's the way it should be...

[Spirited777]

Yeah I encountered this problem too! , I had like 80% probability and thereabouts, I failed like 3 times in a row..so I tried something that had 95% and it succeeded and tried the one with 80% again, then it started to work...somehow I think it's bugged! Or maybe IT IS BUGGED.

[Rorin_V]

Here's the thing about probability, it doesn't always add up to what you think it should. If you were to do the trial over and over and over, say 10,000 times, then your success rate would approach the stated probability. Doing a few trials and not getting a 75% success rate does not mean the game is bugged.

What it means is that EACH TIME you try you have a 75% chance of success, and therefore a 25% chance of failure. It does not mean that if you try four times, you'll get 3 of 4 successes.

I had a 30% chance of making my level 20 bow, but I got it on the first try. Does that mean it's bugged? No, it means I got lucky.

Sorry about your bad luck; try again. :)

[El_Avalancha]

Here's the thing about probability, it doesn't always add up to what you think it should. If you were to do the trial over and over and over, say 10,000 times, then your success rate would approach the stated probability. Doing a few trials and not getting a 75% success rate does not mean the game is bugged.

What it means is that EACH TIME you try you have a 75% chance of success, and therefore a 25% chance of failure. It does not mean that if you try four times, you'll get 3 of 4 successes.

I had a 30% chance of making my level 20 bow, but I got it on the first try. Does that mean it's bugged? No, it means I got lucky.

Sorry about your bad luck; try again. :)

Sorry rori, that's why we are saying that there is a bug. if u got that bow in the 1st try and we (cause im having the same problem) try 4-8 times to forge a weapon and we fail with 75% succes rate.... its because its bugged.

[glericus]

Well it is pretty much accurate as it should be. I did around 100 flawed eliment with a 75% chanse, and ended up with 74 successes ones.

[shiningkittenfur]

oO;
not bugged.. your just unlucky..

i forged 2 bows with 45% chance and both succeded... dosnt mean that the percent would be 100%~
right......?

[justindz]

Despite the valid issues with small sample size, my general experience in game has been that the randomizer probably isn't very good. Watch how your mining pulls work (not total count, actually watch them). Having been a developer for a long time, I've seen poorly seeded (like, seeded to something which changes less frequently than user action or seeded to something which cycles predictably) or un-seeded randomizers in action. This hits batches of success and failure a lot, even with low % items.

The upshot is that if you fail a craft on something 80% and I'm right, you're more likely to fail again once or possibly twice. All of which means that you should take a break and try again later. I could be wrong. Maybe the devs will chime in and say they use the Merseinne Twister algorithm or something.