Refining Secrets

[CrimsonWings]

Just a lil sharing thread. since we all hate when our items break i was just thinking the community could be nice and share their secrets and tricks. please be nice and share for those that know them <3

[ksand]

there iz a trick to refining didnt know that i will ask around but i dont think any one will tell it

[ToorimaKun]

i have herd from some of them that there is a pattern but they change it up frequently

[Warduke]

Great idea, i want to upgrade my sword and i fear that it maybe break.

[CrimsonWings]

i just cant understand why some one would want to keep these things private, its for the better of the entire comunity. all it comes down to is greed so they can make more money off selling their high refine items while i have broken 10 hats just trying to get it to +3

[Gavener]

or there afraid if they say the Devs will fix it so no one can, atlease this way some weapons are in the cycle

[atese]

There isn't a trick. The "pattern" people keep ranting about is just a streak of successes. Try throwing 100 elrue in random locations, and throw 100 elrue according to your "pattern" of choice. There won't be any statistically significant difference.

Note: In my trials, 70/125 elrue succeeded. These elrue were mostly placed in the bottom right slot.(not that it makes any difference) Based on that rate(56%):

Probability of three consecutive successes: 17.5%
Probability of two additional successes after a success: 31.36%

Neither of these would be considered statistically improbable, which typically draws the line at 5%.

Also note that given a sufficiently large number of trials, events with arbitrarily low probabilities will be seen.

Those are for 1-3. I'd give you the probabilities for 4-6, but I don't have enough lix trials to get any estimation of the success rate.

Also note, the break rate(for elrue) was 13/125, or around 10%.

Enhancing is just a game of chance. If you can't afford the loss, then don't play.

Rather than immediately posting the above, I went and bought 204 elrue and spammed them on nub weapons/armor. I labeled each slot 1-8, and dumped them in slots based on a random number generator at www.random.org


The results are as follows:

107 success
50 fail
15 -1
32 break

Success Probability: 52.4%
Fail: 24.5%
-1: 7.4%
Break: 15.7%

The -1 number is probably low, because you can't -1 a weapon that isn't enhanced.

My previous numbers were as follows(125 trials, bottom right slot):

70 Success
7 -1
35 Fail
13 Break

Probabilities:

Success: 56%
Fail 28%
-1 5.6%
Break: 10.4%

If anyone wants to shoot 200 elrue according to their "pattern" and log the results, feel free. I already covered the random slots for comparison. It would be a waste of 6-10s though, because the result is random. There is no "trick."

Final notes:
1)I got the Triumphant Enhancer title on a streak of two(F,S,S->Title), so fiestafan's title wiki is wrong on that. Someone with a FF account want to fix the wiki(or relay the info to someone who can)?

2)My largest streak was 7(the seven streak occurred after getting Triumphant) on the random runs. There were also 2 6 streaks and 3 5 streaks. IIRC, the bottom right corner runs had a largest streak of 4.

3)This is for T1 ELRUE ONLY. Lix and Xir may have different success rates. Other tiers may have different success rates. I'm not rich enough to test them.

proof on triumphant(for ff title wiki):
http://img115.imageshack.us/my.php?image=triumphzo8.jpg

[nachtwind]

Well i have not exactly a pattern, i simply put my elrues always at the same slot (lower left). It works 7 out of 10 times but thats all about it. What i think is annoying is the chance of breaking though succeding in enchanting (happened 3 times already -_-).
Anyways, i hope that there is no pattern for succeeding since it would end up everyone having a +23 weapon and instantly it would ruin the effect of being 'unique' ;0)

[aegrimonia]

You people need to try this 'pattern' on level 20 and above weapons... your chances of success go down greatly at higher level weapons.

Trust me, i get a lvl 15 bow to +7 by having it in the same spot (the elrue).

but i failed many, many level 20 hammers and i tried every 'pattern' there was.

to put it another way.. level 15 and below weapons are easy to upgrade.

[MyYing]

theres no trick..all your sh!ts gonna break now you know ^.- b

[5punkmeyer]

I am not really shure:

Have you tested these things with the same circumstances:

Same Weapon (level, enhancement level)
Same Character
Same Character-Level

?

I ask because maybe there is a Pattern based on:

- Characterlevel
- Characterclass
- WeaponType
- WeaponLevel
- Weapon EnhancementLevel


I am starting statistics with these things in mind, and my results are, that there is a pattern. But I cannot prove, because I only tried 30 Elrues.
And thats not enough, to prove my theory.
But I'm on it :-)

Greets,
Gaianyc / Spunkmeyer

[CrimsonWings]

i would just like it to be known that this is a copy of a game made many years ago call ragnarok http://iro.ragnarokonline.com/
look
http://www.outspark.com/sos/game-info/character-info/
exactly same patten as ragnork except that ragnrok you can go on and it was made so many years earlier and they both look the same
but ragnork has 25 classes to chose from instead of just 5
so namy it cant be showed on just one page
just look http://iro.ragnarokonline.com/game/jobintro.asp

why cant outspark get there own ideas
because there **** thats why

you can play on private severs like
form sites like http://www.gamesites200.com/ragnarok/
over 200 severs dedicated to the game where you can play a better game for free with no adds

i know this is my first and most likly last message so go to ragnarok


ok...we care why, and its in my thread why?

[atese]

Why would they bother to implement some elaborate pattern for something that can be accomplished by a simple pseudo-random number generator? I know I wouldn't(neither would most of the programmers I know-they are lazy).

Varying for weapon level/enhancement level, and character level would be incredibly tedious. All the weapons I tested were level 1 nub weapons bought from the smith. All 204 attempts were done on one character without logging off. The prior 125 attempts were across several characters. The relatively close agreement on success rate would suggest there isn't any difference between characters. The break rate was a bit higher the second time, but there was only 13 breaks on the older set. A few more/less breaks would have changed the percentage considerably.


As far as proving that a given pattern produces higher success rates, good luck. It will be VERY expensive.

Oh, and nachtwind, assuming a 50% success rate, the probability of getting 7/10 can be computed with the equation P=(nCk)*(p^k)*q^(n-k) where:

n is the number of trials(10)
k is the number of successes(7)
p is the probability of success(0.5)
q is the probability of failure(0.5)
and lastly, nCx is a combination(see combinatorics in wikipedia)(10C7=120)
(note: this is a bernoulli trial if you want to look it up)

for your anecdote, that would be 120*(0.5^7)*(0.5^3)=120*(0.5^10)=0.117=11.7%

Which wouldn't be considered abnormal. Indeed, given the hundreds of people throwing elrue at items, it is almost a given that someone will get 7/10. The odds of 10/10 are low(0.097%), but if 1000 people each use 10 elrue, there would be a 62% chance that at least one got a 10/10. Thats one of the major issues with MMOs and probabilities. Even if something is incredibly rare, SOMEONE will manage to see it happen just by virtue of the shear number of players. And with the tendency of people to cite anecdotal evidence...

Edit-corrected an error

[aegrimonia]

i'm sorry to tell you that the pattern is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Success or failure is a random number generation.. the animation is just to keep you occupied for a little bit and heighten the drama.

It looks like a pattern because you are putting the elrues in a pattern..

let me say this again, for those that don't get it.

I TOOK A BOW TO +7 BY LEAVING THE ELRUE IN THE SAME SPOT EVERY TIME.

get it?

[CrimsonWings]

i mostly made this thread as an informational thread for most ppl. im startiing to call the refinement screen "The Item Enhancement Ring Of Doom" the success rats in the game are dismal to the point where i broke 10 hats and wasted over 100 elure just getting it to +3 i also broke over 5 pairs of pants getting them to +3 aswell. i doubt is just my luck bad damn refining is just...a bad idea most the time. i only do it for the shinies any more...

[Ucanius]

There is no secret. There is no formula. There is no calculations involved. The enchancement system is totally random. To put it simply, I shall reveal the plan outspark company have for those eager to get hold of a shiny +9 weapon or gears so listen up.

First of all, outspark's games are free for life as stated by the official website. So there is no gain for creating such a game and hosting it on servers for players to play. Ever wonder how the staffs at outspark gonna earn their paycheck then? :) The online premium shop that's what it is, selling virtual items to players like you and me alike.

Back to topic oops(I just like to go off topic sometimes haha). There is no way the outspark's GMs or the programmers behind the games, is going to solve this low success rate enhancement system currently in the game. BECAUSE the lower the success rate, the more desperate players are going to get....and therefore the more they are willing to spend real life money $$$ to purchase <enchancement protection scrolls> from the online premium shop, which in turn generate revenue for the game company. Of course, outspark can't make the success rate so impossible low, so once in awhile, you might get someone lucky enough to enchance a +9 without even using scrolls!

Now for the inside juice about the stuffs in the premium shop we are talking about.

The <enhancement protection scrolls> are going to come in 3 variety. The system is already in place. Go to an in-game blacksmith and click on <Refine Weapon>. Do you see 3 colored slots at the bottom? Now that are the slots for the premium shop scrolls. I shall list 1 of the 3 scrolls you can purchase :

Break protect(name varies) : Prevent your item from breaking should the enhancement fails.

Guess the other 2 yourself, but as a side note, do know the fact that there will be no sale of 100% enchancement success scrolls! lol so banish that thought. Secret to a +9 enhancement? Possible if you spend enough money on those premium scrolls and try and try and try til you success in making that dream +9 item. Luck plays a role. And no...having a <Enchancement God> title on your toon is not going to make you have a higher success rate than the rest of us. Players who do not wish to purchase virtual items using real life money do not be disappointed. Always possible to purchase premium items from other players who have made purchases in exchange for in-game currency/items. Just do not expect it to be cheap tho.

CSR[Cretz], I believe this should come under your department :) should I make any mistake in the above post, kindly correct me. Hope this will clear up the doubts in the air regarding the secret to the art of refining.

Cheers!

[aegrimonia]

There is no secret. There is no formula. There is no calculations involved. The enchancement system is totally random. To put it simply, I shall reveal the plan outspark company have for those eager to get hold of a shiny +9 weapon or gears so listen up.

First of all, outspark's games are free for life as stated by the official website. So there is no gain for creating such a game and hosting it on servers for players to play. Ever wonder how the staffs at outspark gonna earn their paycheck then? :) The online premium shop that's what it is, selling virtual items to players like you and me alike.

Back to topic oops(I just like to go off topic sometimes haha). There is no way the outspark's GMs or the programmers behind the games, is going to solve this low success rate enhancement system currently in the game. BECAUSE the lower the success rate, the more desperate players are going to get....and therefore the more they are willing to spend real life money $$$ to purchase <enchancement protection scrolls> from the online premium shop, which in turn generate revenue for the game company. Of course, outspark can't make the success rate so impossible low, so once in awhile, you might get someone lucky enough to enchance a +9 without even using scrolls!

Now for the inside juice about the stuffs in the premium shop we are talking about.

The <enhancement protection scrolls> are going to come in 3 variety. The system is already in place. Go to an in-game blacksmith and click on <Refine Weapon>. Do you see 3 colored slots at the bottom? Now that are the slots for the premium shop scrolls. I shall list 1 of the 3 scrolls you can purchase :

Break protect(name varies) : Prevent your item from breaking should the enhancement fails.

Guess the other 2 yourself, but as a side note, do know the fact that there will be no sale of 100% enchancement success scrolls! lol so banish that thought. Secret to a +9 enhancement? Possible if you spend enough money on those premium scrolls and try and try and try til you success in making that dream +9 item. Luck plays a role. And no...having a <Enchancement God> title on your toon is not going to make you have a higher success rate than the rest of us. Players who do not wish to purchase virtual items using real life money do not be disappointed. Always possible to purchase premium items from other players who have made purchases in exchange for in-game currency/items. Just do not expect it to be cheap tho.

CSR[Cretz], I believe this should come under your department :) should I make any mistake in the above post, kindly correct me. Hope this will clear up the doubts in the air regarding the secret to the art of refining.

Cheers!

yay! someone else who gets it!

touche!

[Ucanius]

LOL my that was a fast reply.. decided to boost your reputation! point added! yay! ;)

[ToorimaKun]

i just cant understand why some one would want to keep these things private, its for the better of the entire comunity. all it comes down to is greed so they can make more money off selling their high refine items while i have broken 10 hats just trying to get it to +3

most people in this game seem to be greedy... just ask to join a party 5+ levls higher than you and you will be called a noob and told to go to roumen evin if you are levl 30+

[Deedolith]

Actually there is a pattern that use a pseudo random function.
The function itself is very predictable, but if you init it with an unknown number (like a complex math formula involving time), it become impossible for humans to predict the result.

So, in other words, the pattern is called RNG: Random Number Generator.

[Mole3]

One trick is to have a license on you weapon . If u fail sometimes then ur license will be broken not your weapon.